Pride and Prejudisemifinals
Source: 2017 AIME II #2
March 23, 2017
AMCAIMEAIME II
Problem Statement
Teams , , , and are in the playoffs. In the semifinal matches, plays and plays . The winners of those two matches will play each other in the final match to determine the champion. When plays , the probability that wins is , and the outcomes of all the matches are independent. The probability that will be the champion is , where and are relatively prime positive integers. Find .