2021 Individual #23
Source:
April 28, 2022
2021 Individual
Problem Statement
Pikachu, Charmander, and Vulpix are three of the four equally-skilled players in a Pokemon bracket tournament. Because they are equally skilled, whenever any two of the players battle, they are equally likely to win. In the bracket tournament, the four players are randomly paired into two rounds, each round consisting of two players. The winners of the first two rounds then play each other in the final round. The winner of the final match ranks first; the loser of the final round ranks second; and the two losers of the previous rounds jointly rank third. What is the probability that Charmander plays Vulpix in a round, but ranks lower than Pikachu?