Distracted by Thoughts of Greater Magnitude
Source:
March 16, 2010
probability
Problem Statement
Terence Tao is playing rock-paper-scissors. Because his mental energy is focused on solving the twin primes conjecture, he uses the following very simple strategy:
·He plays rock first.
·On each subsequent turn, he plays a different move than the previous one, each with probability ½.
What is the probability that his 5th move will be rock?