MathDB
HMMT Combinatorics 2019/2: Tricky Dice

Source:

February 17, 2019
HMMTprobability

Problem Statement

Your math friend Steven rolls five fair icosahedral dice (each of which is labelled 1,2,,201,2, \dots,20 on its sides). He conceals the results but tells you that at least half the rolls are 2020. Suspicious, you examine the first two dice and find that they show 2020 and 1919 in that order. Assuming that Steven is truthful, what is the probability that all three remaining concealed dice show 2020?