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2007 Stanford Mathematics Tournament
17
17
Part of
2007 Stanford Mathematics Tournament
Problems
(1)
Probability of True Positive Given Tested Positive
Source:
3/15/2010
There is a test for the dangerous bifurcation virus that is
99
%
99\%
99%
accurate. In other words, if someone has the virus, there is a
99
%
99\%
99%
chance that the test will be positive, and if someone does not have it, then there is a
99
%
99\%
99%
chance the test will be negative. Assume that exactly
1
%
1\%
1%
of the general population has the virus. Given an individual that has tested positive from this test, what is the probability that he or she actually has the disease? Express your answer as a percentage.
probability